Our desire for air travel has increased, but is far from pre-pandemic levels. An effect of thinner wallets, global concerns – or that many see flying as the number one environmental culprit?
Winter darkness and sleet. A charter trip to the Canary Islands or another sun-drenched place has long been the dream of many Swedes at this time of year. The question is whether that is about to change.
In 2022, a total of 25.3 million passengers flew to and from Swedish airports, according to statistics from the Swedish Transport Agency. This is significantly more than during the Covid years, but at the same time only 67 percent of the levels in 2019, before the pandemic put a stop to many people's travel.
Last year's flight dip may be partly due to the pandemic still affecting our travel habits. But a number of other factors are likely at play as well, and it's difficult to know which has the biggest impact, according to Simon Posluk, head of unit at the Swedish Transport Agency.
”"There is a strong connection between household finances and travel, but interestingly enough, we already saw a slowdown in demand in 2018, especially for domestic air travel. So it's not just an effect of war and pandemic and other misery, but it can also be due to changed behavior where both digital habits and climate reasons can play a role," says Simon Posluk.
Regardless of the reason, the figures appear to be part of a trend reversal. For a long time, our flying trend pointed steadily upwards: Between 1990 and 2017, Swedes' flying increased by just over 3 percent per year, measured in number of flight kilometers.
However, domestic flights have remained at the same level from 1997 to 2007, while international flights have grown. But something happened in 2017. In 2017-2019, Swedes' flights to other countries decreased by between 5 and 10 percent – a ”significant decrease,” according to a report by, among others, Jörgen Larsson, a researcher focused on aviation and sustainable consumption at Chalmers University of Technology.
The desire to vacation in a more climate-friendly way is believed to be an important reason, according to the report, which points out that the debate about flight shame began in 2016 and shed light on the climate impact of aviation.
Although the debate falnat Jörgen Larsson still believes that consideration for the climate is contributing to the decreased popularity of flying. He refers, among other things, to the Swedish Environmental Protection Agency's recurring survey in the area. When asked "Have you done anything in your everyday life to reduce your climate impact over the past two years when it comes to your choice of holiday travel?" the proportion who answered "yes" has increased from 37 percent in 2015 to 62 percent in 2021.
”"Although there is always a discrepancy between what people say and what people do, it can be assumed that a steady increase over time in what people say also has an impact on behavior," says Jörgen Larsson.
When it comes to business travel, it is even clearer that new digital meeting habits have contributed to fewer people taking the plane, he emphasizes.
”Many organizations have travel policies that limit flying, both for climate reasons and to make video meetings cheaper. Many believe that business travel will never return to the same levels.”
That is also what The Swedish Transport Agency's forecast for 2022–2028 indicates: Business travel by air does not appear to reach pre-pandemic levels again.
Overall, in 2023 we are predicted to fly more than last year, but the upswing after the pandemic looks set to slow down. Mainly due to global concerns and the recession, according to the Swedish Transport Agency.
However, in the long term, Swedes are expected to fly more abroad again according to the authority's forecast, and by 2028 we could be back at the same levels as before the pandemic. However, we do not seem to have the same desire to fly within the country as before the pandemic – in 2028, one in four passengers is expected to skip domestic flights compared to 2019.
Although many factors are at play, it is likely that a partial explanation for the decrease in flying is a change in norms. This is the opinion of Maria Wolrath Söderberg, a rhetoric researcher at Södertorn University, who has studied why some people stop flying. She believes that the public debate often gives the impression that we are flying ”like crazy” after the pandemic, which gives a misleading image that we are incapable of changing:
”"The decrease reflects a change in norms that is very clear in conversations and social media. It is particularly interesting given that we encounter few other examples of clear behavioral changes for the sake of the climate."”
Source: TT-DI.SE
