Arlanda as a transport hub and Swedish domestic routes could be losers when Air France-KLM becomes a major owner of SAS. That's what aviation analyst Jan Ohlsson believes. "I think Air France-KLM is very tight-lipped when it comes to this.".
On Tuesday evening it became clear that a consortium including Air France-KLM would become a major shareholder in SAS, which would also be delisted from the stock exchange. The Danish state would remain as a major shareholder, while the Swedish state would not invest any more money.
Independent aviation analyst Jan Ohlsson says that he is somewhat surprised by the new ownership structure, but describes it as positive that Air France-KLM is investing in the company.
”"This is the best thing that could happen to SAS. You get an airline as an owner, which is much better than being owned by a bunch of venture capitalists who want a quick profit," he says.
He notes that SAS CEO Anko van der Werff is himself Dutch and worked at Air France-KLM from 2000-2010 and that he most likely still has good contacts within the company.
The Franco-Dutch aviation group will own approximately 20 percent of the shares, making it SAS's third largest owner, but Jan Ohlson believes that it will be the player with the most say in stopping the losses.
”"There will be tough times for some of the staff, unprofitable routes will be ruthlessly scrapped and unprofitable aircraft will be replaced. I think Air France-KLM is very tough on this."”
Air France-KLM has recently been forced to adapt to new rules at Amsterdam's Schiphol Airport, where authorities want to reduce the number of flights to reduce noise levels and emissions.
With that in mind, and in light of SAS leaving the Star Alliance to join Sky Team, founded by Air France-KLM, Jan Ohlson believes that some of the traffic from Amsterdam could now be redirected to Copenhagen to form a larger traffic hub there. This could also affect Arlanda and other Swedish airports.
”"Much of the traffic in this scenario will be routed past Arlanda and I believe that they will try to pick up travelers to Copenhagen and Amsterdam," says Jan Ohlson, emphasizing the importance of the Danish state remaining as a major owner.
”"A domestic policy in Sweden may not be that interesting if you sit and make decisions in Amsterdam, but a weak Danish domestic policy can certainly be defended by the Danes in Copenhagen."”
After all, Air France-KLM only owns 20 percent – how much can they really decide?
”"More than you think. I think people should be prepared for there to be much bigger changes at SAS than you think. But the Danes have the opportunity to be winners while the Swedes look like they will be losers."”
Jan Ohlson sees a scenario where the more financial owners, Caslelake and Lind Invest, at a later date transfer their ownership to Air France-KLM.
”"It's true that a lot of money has been pumped in, but now is when the work of reforming SAS begins," he says.
Source: DI.SE
