Climate change increased the likelihood of the heatwave that hit France last week, new figures show.
The probability has increased by at least five times according to new calculations from the World Meteorological Organization WWA.
The researchers studied the average temperature in France and in the city of Toulouse during the three hottest days last week and compared the data with historical measurements using a computer simulation that showed what the weather would have been like if the climate were unaffected by human carbon dioxide emissions.
"We have used observations and several climate models to see what impact climate change has had on this particular heat wave. Our results show that the probability that the heat wave was influenced by climate change has increased fivefold due to human climate change," says Friederike Otto, acting director of the Climate Change Institute at Oxford University and one of the researchers behind the study.
According to the researchers, this type of heatwave is also more intense and occurs more frequently than climate models have previously predicted.
This analysis has not yet been peer-reviewed, and it is unique that a result is being released so close to the data collection. However, Frederick believes this is an underestimate, saying that the researchers believe the likelihood that the heat wave was influenced by climate change is probably greater.
– We know that these climate models are not perfect, so the figures we present are an underestimate. The probability is probably higher, says Frederike Otto.
The heat wave that swept across Europe last week led to several new historical temperature records in a number of countries, including France, Austria, Germany, Spain and Switzerland.
Source:Ekot
