The recession will bottom out this year and towards the end of the year the economic recovery will begin.
It is evident from The National Institute of Economic Research's latest forecast.
It is further noted that inflation has fallen back rapidly recently and that the decline will continue in 2024. The Riksbank will therefore begin a series of interest rate cuts in June.
”"The economy will begin to recover at the end of the year, but it will take until 2026 before the recession is over," the institute writes.
Source: Aftonbladet.se
Consumption will be an important driver of the recovery. Lower interest rates and rising real wages mean that household consumption will grow relatively rapidly from the end of 2024. At the same time, investments in defense, among other things, mean that government consumption will grow significantly faster than normal, as it is doing this year.
The National Institute of Economic Research estimates that the budget space for 2025–2028 amounts to approximately SEK 130 billion, of which approximately SEK 40 billion is assumed to be used in 2025.
| 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GDP at market prices | –0,2 | 0,8 | 2,5 | 2,9 | 2,1 | 1,6 |
| GDP per capita | –0,8 | 0,2 | 2,0 | 2,4 | 1,6 | 1,2 |
| GDP, calendar adjusted | 0,0 | 0,8 | 2,7 | 2,7 | 1,9 | 1,8 |
| GDP, KIX-weighted (1) | 1,4 | 1,5 | 2,1 | 2,1 | 2,0 | 1,9 |
| CPI, KIX-weighted (1) | 5,5 | 2,9 | 2,4 | 2,4 | 2,3 | 2,3 |
| Current account (2) | 6,7 | 6,5 | 6,2 | 5,4 | 5,0 | 4,3 |
| Hours worked (3) | 1,8 | 0,4 | 1,0 | 1,2 | 1,1 | 0,5 |
| Employment | 1,4 | –0,4 | 0,8 | 1,2 | 1,0 | 0,6 |
| Unemployment (4) | 7,7 | 8,3 | 8,2 | 7,9 | 7,4 | 7,4 |
| Labor market gap (4) | –0,3 | –1,4 | –1,2 | –0,6 | 0,0 | 0,0 |
| GDP gap (6) | –0,7 | –1,6 | –1,0 | –0,1 | 0,0 | 0,0 |
| Hourly wage (7) | 3,8 | 3,9 | 3,6 | 3,7 | 3,7 | 3,7 |
| Labor cost per hour (3.8) | 4,2 | 3,2 | 3,2 | 3,7 | 3,7 | 3,7 |
| Productivity (3) | –1,5 | 0,4 | 1,6 | 1,4 | 0,8 | 1,2 |
| CPI | 8,5 | 2,8 | 0,3 | 1,8 | 2,0 | 2,0 |
| CPIF | 6,0 | 1,9 | 1,5 | 2,0 | 2,0 | 2,0 |
| Policy rate (9.10) | 4,00 | 3,00 | 2,25 | 2,25 | 2,25 | 2,25 |
| Ten-year government bond yield (9) | 2,5 | 2,4 | 2,5 | 2,7 | 2,8 | 2,9 |
| Krona Index (KIX) (11) | 127,5 | 125,0 | 123,2 | 120,5 | 118,9 | 118,8 |
| Public financial savings (2) | –0,5 | –1,3 | –0,7 | 0,1 | 0,4 | 0,4 |
| Structural savings (12) | 0,5 | 0,6 | –0,2 | 0,3 | 0,3 | 0,3 |
| Maastricht debt (2) | 30,8 | 32,3 | 32,8 | 32,4 | 32,2 | 32,2 |
1 KIX-weighted GDP and CPI are aggregates that are weighted together using the Riksbank's KIX weights. KIX includes Sweden's 32 most important trading partners.
2 Percent of GDP.
3 Calendar corrected.
4 Percent of the workforce.
5 The difference between actual and potential hours worked expressed as a percentage of potential hours worked.
6 The difference between actual and potential GDP expressed as a percentage of potential GDP.
7 According to cyclical wage statistics.
8 Refers to employee hours.
9 percent.
10 At the end of the year.
11 Index 1992–11–18=100.
12 Percent of potential GDP.
