Several airlines are now preparing for a recovery in air traffic. However, it will take time, according to the Swedish Transport Agency's new forecast. During the period 2021–2027, the industry is not expected to return to pre-pandemic levels.
The new passenger forecast paints a somewhat bleak picture regarding passenger development at Swedish airports.
The clear increase that had previously been predicted would come this summer is now believed to not occur and will instead not occur until 2022. This is as a consequence of high infection rates, delayed vaccine deliveries and continued travel restrictions.
Even though aviation has gone through a series of crises in recent decades, this one is special, points out Simon Posluk, head of unit at the Maritime and Aviation Department at the Swedish Transport Agency.
– We have reason to believe that there has been a change in behavior and so-called one-day meetings. We believe that meetings where you travel over the day, for example Stockholm-Brussels, will largely transition to becoming digital, he says.
This year, the number of passengers at Swedish airports is estimated to be six million, compared to 5.6 million in the pandemic year of 2020.
For 2022, the number of passengers is estimated to be around 14.4 million, but a recovery to pre-pandemic levels is not expected during the entire forecast period, that is, up to and including 2027.
Will that recovery ever happen?
– It is partly answered by the climate issue. How does aviation manage to address the climate and environmental issue? It is an important part of the recovery.
The forecast is being released at a time when there is still growing optimism in the industry. The airline SAS announced in the spring that it has expanded its route network with several flights, and in early May, the airline BRA will resume its flights after previously applying for reconstruction, including from Bromma to Malmö, Ängelholm and Visby.
– There are still a lot of travel restrictions, both nationally, but also in other countries. Many countries have requirements for testing or quarantine hotels, which is holding back demand for travel. Since then, we have not seen a reversal in terms of the spread of infection, which has a powerful dampening effect on travel, says Simon Posluk.
The demand for a vaccine passport has increased from the industry. The EU recently announced its hope that vaccine passports will be in place from July 1st, and member states have given the green light for negotiations with the EU Parliament.
However, Simon Posluk points out that there are still question marks on this issue.
– What remains is how well this will be developed and there is also legislative work within the Commission. It remains to be seen what it will end up with and whether it will be mutually accepted and you can create restriction-free travel flows. But it can of course contribute to increasing demand.
Source: TT
