Ryanair has cut its passenger forecast for the 2027 financial year from 216 million to 214 million, citing high oil prices and the airline's desire to reduce its exposure to unsecured jet fuel during the weaker winter season. At the same time, traffic increased by 6 percent in August.
Ryanair carried 22.2 million passengers in August 2026, compared to 21 million in the same month last year. This represents an increase of 6 percent.
The cabin load factor remained unchanged at 96 percent. During the month, Ryanair operated over 120,500 flights, while more than 400 departures were cancelled due to the eruption of Mount Etna.
On a rolling twelve-month basis, the number of passengers increased by 5 percent, from 203.6 to 214.4 million.
Lowers forecast by two million passengers
At the same time, Ryanair is adjusting its traffic forecast for the full fiscal year FY27 downwards from 216 million to 214 million passengers.
The airline is referring to the high prices of the portion of jet fuel that is not price-hedged. Ryanair has hedged around 80 percent of its fuel requirements for the year at around $67 per barrel, while jet fuel, according to the company, is currently trading at around $140 per barrel.
Ryanair is therefore choosing to reduce capacity during the winter schedule from November to March. Traffic during the period is expected to be roughly unchanged compared to the previous year.
The cut is expected to reduce Ryanair's winter losses by between 70 and 100 million euros, depending on ticket prices and demand.
Warns of higher airfares next summer
During the summer program from April to October, Ryanair still expects to increase traffic by just over 5 percent, from 138 million to around 145 million passengers.
The company also expects to be profitable in FY27, but profit after tax is expected to be lower than the record level in the previous financial year. A more detailed profit forecast is not yet provided.
If high oil prices persist into the summer of 2027, Ryanair estimates that ticket prices on European short-haul routes could rise sharply. The company believes that competitors with a lower degree of fuel hedging may find it difficult to maintain their current capacity during the winter.
Ryanair is expected to provide the next major update in conjunction with its half-year report in November.
