In 30 years, Stockholm will be as hot as Budapest, a new study shows. According to the study, the weather will change dramatically in most of the world's cities. And 22 percent of the cities will have a climate unlike anything we've seen before.
What will the climate look like in the world's cities in 2050? Researchers from the Zurich University of Technology have tried to answer that question. In a study published in the scientific journal Plos One, they analyze the climate in 520 cities based on a so-called RCP 4.5 scenario, which assumes that emissions decrease sharply, but not so sharply that the goals of the Paris Agreement are reached.
The results show that 77 percent of the world's cities will experience a significantly changed climate. Cities in the northern hemisphere will experience a climate similar to that of cities about 1000 kilometers to the south today. London will thus become as warm as Barcelona, Seattle as warm as San Francisco and Stockholm as warm as Budapest.
Markku Rummukainen, climate researcher at SMHI, believes that the study can be a way to illustrate and create an image of what a future Stockholm could look like, but that the picture is not comprehensive.
”"The comparisons can give a sense of what climate change means. But at the same time, one should keep in mind that the changes are more complex than just temperature. If you just think that Stockholm will get a Budapest climate, you can think about it. But hey, that doesn't sound so terrible". But in reality, the problem is much more serious," says Markku Rummukainen.
He points to that different cities have completely different conditions. Barcelona's climate may be unproblematic in today's Barcelona, but if London in the future had the same climate as Barcelona has today, major problems could arise.
”"Our cities have grown, consciously or unconsciously, under previous and current climate conditions. When you then get a change in the climate, it can in turn have effects on, for example, the bearing capacity of the soil, flood risks and water resources, which can lead to further problems," he says.
According to the study, 22 percent of the world's cities will experience a climate unlike anything we've seen before.
”"The study shows that several cities could have a climate that is not found in any major city today. It is a message that the future looks different and that innovative thinking and adaptation measures are needed," says Markku Rummukainen.
The researchers behind the study emphasize that their calculations and models are not new. Instead, their contribution is to put climate change in a context that is easier for the public to relate to.
Source: TT
