Heat warnings and nightmarish forest fires are marking the summer in Southern Europe. And the heat wave would have been ”virtually impossible” if humans had not influenced the climate, according to a new study.
41.8 degrees in Rome, 45.3 degrees in Catalonia and 46 degrees in Sardinia. Local temperature records have been breaking in southern Europe in recent days. Meanwhile, forest fires are raging in the Greek archipelago and heat-related deaths have been reported from several countries, according to the research network World Weather Attribution.
Even parts of North America, Mexico and China have been hit by heat waves with local record highs in July. For example, temperatures have climbed above 50 degrees in northwestern China and in Death Valley in the US.
So what is causing the heat? The natural weather phenomenon El Niño has played a role. But it is almost certain that the heat waves in southern Europe and North America in July would never have occurred if humans had not influenced the climate.
This is shown by a new rapid study by World Weather Attribution, which analyzes the degree to which climate change contributes to individual extreme weather events.
Regarding the heat wave in China, the researchers found that it was 50 times more likely to occur today when the planet is 1.2 degrees warmer than pre-industrial times, as a result of human emissions of greenhouse gases.
Climate change is making heat waves more frequent, hotter and longer. The new analysis shows that human emissions of greenhouse gases have made the heat wave in Europe 2.5 degrees warmer than it would otherwise have been, the one in North America 2 degrees warmer and the one in China 1 degree warmer.
The results are hardly surprising, says Friederike Otto, a climate scientist at Imperial College London and one of the study's authors.
”"The world hasn't stopped burning fossil fuels, the climate continues to warm and heat waves continue to become more extreme. It's that simple," she says in a comment.
However, Otto emphasizes that the heat is not a sign of "climate collapse" and that it is not too late to reverse the trend.
Meanwhile, heat waves are already claiming thousands of lives each year, the researchers say. They call for better warning systems, action plans and other adaptations to extreme heat, which will only become more common as average temperatures rise.
If the world warms by two degrees – which is only 30 years away if countries do not meet their commitments under the Paris Agreement – similar heat waves could occur in the world every two to five years, the researchers write.
The analysis was conducted in a very short time and has not yet been peer-reviewed by other researchers. However, the methods used are scientifically recognized, the study's authors emphasize.
Source: TT-DI.SE
