If the stricter travel restrictions imposed due to new variants of the coronavirus remain in place, it could derail the aviation sector's recovery, the global industry organization IATA warns in a forecast update.

Global demand for flights fell by almost 70 percent in 2020 compared to 2019, measured in revenue per passenger kilometer flown. This is according to the industry association IATA which states that last year's collapse in aviation is the biggest decline ever.

For 2021, the organization predicts a recovery of just over 50 percent, which would mean demand recovering to half of 2019 levels. 

But IATA is now warning of significant risks. If stricter travel restrictions to combat new strains of the coronavirus remain in place, the recovery could be limited to as little as 13 percent year-on-year. In such a scenario, demand this year would be just under two-fifths of 2019 levels.

”The world is more closed now than at any time in the last 12 months and passengers face a confusing array of uncoordinated and rapidly changing global travel restrictions,” said IATA CEO Alexandre de Juniac in a press release, calling on governments around the world to work with the aviation industry to establish international standards for vaccines and testing in connection with travel.